Im skeptical of the claim that Florida is shifting in any way. It seems that the county map for Florida will be pretty consistent for every election going forward. It will be Blue in Tampa, Orlando, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Miami/Palm Beach. Democrats dominate the cities, and republicans win everywhere else.

It’s really just going to come down to where the plurality lives- in metro areas, or in between them. The only counties that were really “battlegrounds” in the state- when looking at 2012, 2016, and 2020- appear to be those on the edge of metro areas, like Jefferson, Pinellas, Monroe, and St. Lucie. The I-95 stretch between Daytona and Jacksonville has changed hands a few times since 2008, as well.