BP agrees with you.
Astros #6 Prospect
Michael Feliz
Position: RHP
DOB: 09/28/1993
Height/Weight: 6’4” 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2010, Dominican Republic
Previous Ranking: #10 (Org)
2014 Stats: 4.03 ERA (102.2 IP, 104 H, 111 K, 37 BB) at Low-A Quad Cities
The Tools: 6+ FB; 6 potential SL; 5 potential CH
What Happened in 2014: The burly righty made steady progress in his first taste of full-season ball, showing growth in his power slider and changeup while improving his approach across longer outings.
Strengths: Loud arm; arm speed to produce velo and spin; sits 92 to 94 mph with solid life, reaching as high as 98 mph up in the zone; good downward angle; most effective working down and can elevate ahead in count; slider is second potential plus offering with fastball trajectory out the hand and hard, late, sweeping action; built for the long haul; thick lower half helps generate power without over exertion.
Weaknesses: Can get stiff in landing, impacting command in the zone; some length on the back side, causing inconsistencies in path and release; changeup lags as below-average offering; too firm and can float up in the zone; can tip pitch on arm swing and deceleration; will come around slider, softening bite and leaving hittable; can lean too heavily on fastball from stretch; fastball can leak back across plate against oppo bats.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: High 5; late-inning relief/closer
Risk Factor/Injury History: High; low-minors resume.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Another year closer and Feliz is still lingering in flier territory in most leagues. If your league rosters 200 minor leaguers, he should likely be owned, but the risk of ending up a reliever is real and he’s got an assignment in Lancaster staring him in the face—which is bad for business.
The Year Ahead: There is still a fair amount of work to be done in order for Feliz to reach his upside as a solid mid-rotation starter at the highest level, but the progress made in 2014 was encouraging. By the end of the year, Feliz looked much more comfortable his second time through the order, and there was more consistency in his secondary execution. More than anything, Feliz has to find a suitable option for tripping up lefty bats. His changeup doesn’t offer enough trajectory variance or deception at present, and he can’t yet command his fastball consistently enough to the inner half to lefty hitters to jump the offering. Should he transition to the pen, his fastball/slider combo could play as presently constituted, and he could even see an uptick in velocity letting it air out in short stints. The hitter-friendly confines of the California League will pose a challenge for Feliz and place increased import on his ability to disrupt timing and deal with more precision. With continued incremental improvement, Feliz could be competing for a rotation spot two springs from now, with a rapid ascent possible should Houston decide they want his big right arm as a late-inning option.