The Great Eurasian Game: One author's take on the connections between Ukraine, Syria, Iran, and the South China Sea

Summary:
The author believes that the US has recently begun pursuing a "Reverse Brzezinski" strategy. This strategy would seem to connect many of the current conflicts we see today: Ukraine, Syria, Iran, and the South China Sea et al.

The Reverse Brzezinski strategy tries to destabilize a regime to create a "black hole." This is in contrast to the more familiar strategy of funding the overthrow of a regime to institute a more friendly regime. A black hole is in effect a failed state. The creation of black holes next to hostile neighbours creates a massive liability on their doorstep. The failed state exports chaos in the form of violence, refugees, and supply chain disruptions. This creates a situation of "damned if you do, damned if you don't". If the target nation doesn't try to intervene in the black hole, the failed state continued to export chaos and tax the target nation's resources. If the target does intervene, it will be even worse, which is why its called a black hole. A "successful" black hole or failed state will be so filled with ethnic violence or religious violence or what have you, and have such a breakdown in institutions and infrastructure, that it would take trillions and years to fix it, thus bankrupting the target nation.

The author argues this strategy was first developed and employed in successfully luring the Soviet Union into invading Afghanistan. The US had been funding and arming hostile groups to destabilize the regime, which was until that point pro-USSR. The Soviet Union invaded to stop the US-backed destabilizing forces. The trap had been sprung. For the next, almost 10 years, the Soviet Union was "bled to the bone".

The author sees similarities today. The three main targets of the US are: Russia, Iran, and China. Respectively, the US has created black holes of Ukraine and, Syria and Iraq, and (still in its early stages) the South China Sea.

With this lens, we are witnessing the playing out of this strategy in real time. Iraq and Afghanistan are effectively failed states. When the US pulls out, and chaos spreads to Iran's borders, will it be able to resist intervening? (Here is one weakness I see in the author's argument. The US seems to be subjecting itself to the same black hole by returning troops to Iraq in 2014.).

Ukraine is rapidly devolving into a failed state. Will Putin be able to resist intervention into this black hole?

The strategy of creating a black hole in China is still in its beginning stages. There is no failed state target yet, although potential candidates are Myanmar and Kazahstan who border China's volatile South and Western provinces. If China fails to manage this, will it be the spark that collapses communist rule, as Afghanistan did for the USSR?

There is a Part I, which I linked to, and a Part II. I highly recommend reading both parts. The author does a much better job explaining the concept than my summary.

/r/geopolitics Thread Link - orientalreview.org