But quoting from the report you have attached ‘Crater analysis from satellite imagery is problematic, and site visits are needed to confirm presence and origin of the identified possible craters. You didn’t do any site visits

‘Unfortunately, budgetary constraints do not allow analysis of all potential artillery sites at present, and it is unlikely sufficient imagery exists for a complete review.’ So not enough information

And you didn’t just do crater analysis to identify existence, you can see that from the photographs, you used the craters to locate where the artillery shells came from. To do that you need very accurate measurements of the craters. Here are the international standards on crater analysis as used by the UN. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/6-121/fm612_9.htm You used side spray method, this is not suitable under international standards for use with photographs. Splinter groove method uses photographic evidence as step 1 but then you still have to inspect the craters and do the rest of the work The satellites you used have a standard scale of 1:2500 , so if your calculations are out 1mm that translates to a margin of error of 25m on the ground!

There is no soil analysis. The depth of the crater will vary hugely between marshland and volcanic rock. Even between sand, loam, clay etc the difference will be pronounced, where is that analysis? Craters have internal and external craters based on impact and explosion, a 10% error in the estimate of that will put your launching site out by 60kms. From 1:2500 scale satellite photos you can’t even discern that internal craters exist! Panchromatic satellites at 0.5 just don’t give the level of detail to accurately calculate depth to the level you need.

The trajectory as well, you need to know what the material was that you hit (soil which you haven’t examined), the angle it hit at (which you can’t tell from these pictures) and the velocity of the shell which again you don’t know because you have guessed what was fired). You assumed 2 different types of grad, which craters relate to which type of grad. British army shells have a standard variation of 3.8 degrees, even assuming a linear relationship and perfect knowledge that will move your launch site over 1.5km in a circle diameter form.

The report on Sri Lanka say again that they know direction of mortar fire because it is a peninsular so they know there is no navy involved. You don’t have that in Ukraine. Even assuming our calculations are correct they could have come from anywhere in a circle This report is exactly what we see these satellites at poor resolution for, tracking fleeing refugees or tracking migrating animals, flood waters. What is not mentioned anywhere in the report is that the satellites can tell you how tall the people are and that very accurate depth is what you need Who is interested in using this? And for what?