Thanks for the stream recommendations. I always have trouble finding streams I enjoy for COH2. I agree with you completely about the fact there shouldn't be early-game/late-game factions. It's probably the reason COH has such a hard time balancing them, but I think they like that kind of separation. I'll admit I am glad that they stay away from any kind of idea of "hard counters."

Anyways. Regarding your first point, you're gonna find out pretty early what the American player is getting. You know exactly where his fuel is going and what that means he's leading to. Lieutenant? No way is there going to be a commander out soon. Lieutenant + bars + grenades? He's gonna have to wait on that AA half-track for just a little while. But if he already got an m20, he probably wont get an aa. That would give you too much time to go tier 3. The time it takes to get a stuart out is fucking ridiculous as well. That's an 80 fuel commander + 70 fuel stuart. Nevermind the 600 total manpower required to get there. And if he wants to fight your infantry in the mean-time he definitely has to invest in bars. A high pressure support game also means that he needs grenades (and the smokes require veterancy and munitions, too). All of this is very munitions dependent! And that's all before getting a stuart or even a commander. That means you're gonna have more time to pass up his infantry. And yea, a stuart is pretty nice anti-infantry, but requires some serious micromanagement cause just like all the allied armor - it's paper thin armor.

But regardless of all of that random bullshit, the point is Americans are super friggin easy to predict. It costs them more resources and time to change up tactics than it costs you, and you can take advantage of that. They set the pace early game if you let them, but there are a lot of opportunities to flip it on them. It's preparing for and countering those early choices that will allow you to survive the mid-game and wreck them in the end.