I'm not a fan of any of them, but it seems you want a Rolex, particularly the Submariner.

So, if that is what you really want, get it. You won't really be happy with anything else.

but I wonder if explorer is more versatile,

Luxury watches are as versatile as you want them to be. You don't buy a Rolex for anything other than owning a Rolex. It is not a watch you settle on when looking for a good watch.

Tudor is the dark horse, but I wonder if it’ll be 98% of the watch for much less.

That 2% is going to hurt you. You are looking at luxury watches. It is the tiny details that matter. A Seiko Samurai is 99% of a Submariner. It does all the same thing, with better lume, and costs $400. It is the 1% you are looking at and what you are going to pay for.