How can crude possibly get any cheaper?

Demand isn't big enough to keep all the producers online. Crude price will stabilize as companies lose too much from continuing to operate, can't keep their workers, and are forced to scale down production.

Production has been hit hard:

Iran's a wild card. It looks like that deal has enough support to go through. But, it may be accompanied by some protections for US oil producers (e.g. allowing more exports or giving subsidies) because oil is a powerful lobby. Also, the US needs its oil producers in case of war. If the banks were too big to fail, the oil industry sure as hell is too.

Anyway, global production is headed downwards, impossible to know when it's dropped enough. Depends on where the true break-even prices are, and how long companies can keep operating at a loss, which are very unknown. Crude prices will lag behind true supply / demand because it takes time for oil to be refined and consumed.

Oil demand is down a tiny bit but that's been exaggerated:

  • People in the US are driving more fuel-efficient cars. There's a car loan bubble, so that effect may slow down.

  • China's slowdown may be balanced by emerging economies like India in the mid-term.

  • Electric cars are still more hype than substance; they are still too expensive. Also, electric cars would effectively be running on natural gas: renewables are still quite far away (grid infrastructure would need a massive, expensive upgrade to scale that up) and nuclear is too scary for the general public.

Anyway, it's a better time to buy oil majors than it has been in five years. Will it be better or worse a year from now? Who knows?

/r/investing Thread Parent