How Putin's high-risk Syria gamble is paying off

Tl;dr: It is a PR coup in Russia and abroad and nothing will change until western leaders talk to Putin – not about Syria, but about Ukraine and sanctions.

In spring 2014, as the Kremlin made moves to annex Crimea, Putin was under the illusion that the west, particularly Europe, would allow him to fulfil his expansionist desires and would approve, even silently, the annexation of the Ukrainian territories populated by pro-Russia groups.

Finding himself in a Ukrainian dead end, Putin decided to raise the stakes. He acted to ensure the issue of Ukraine would seem insignificant and that Russia would become a key player in a conflict the west could not ignore. That meant adopting a new approach to Syria.

With Russia now a key player in Syria , the west is once again forced to negotiate with Moscow. Russian army attacks are now targeting not just Isis strongholds, but also pro-western opposition bases. The aim is to prolong the war, thereby ensuring Russia’s place at the international negotiation table and legitimising the Kremlin’s foreign policy.

/r/europe Thread Link - theguardian.com