wait i think i got it , first that wasn't a question but a statement that the p = a / (1 - b/2 * s/(s+t)) equation literary is useless because it is of probability of the first card played being golden, ( i finished reading your post btw). The problems with your deduction arrive at "Hence p ~= a / (1 - 0.90.1) ~= 1.1 * a. The chance of your opponent having only 1 copy drafted is about 10% higher if he plays a golden card. You have to play less around another copy of this card!" I think the correct statement here should be: "Hence p ~= a / (1 - 0.90.1) ~= 1.1 * a. The chance of your opponent having only 1 GOLDEN copy drafted is about 10% higher if he plays a golden card. You have to play less around another copy of this GOLDEN card!" In summary, if your opponent plays a golden copy of the card, it is less likely (around 10%) that he owns another GOLDEN copy of this card. I might have misread it easily, i haven't done any math in a long time so do correct me if i am wrong, looking forward to using my brain more. Anyway i am going to sleep for now its almost midnight.