insiderbook Picks - 12/30/17 (Saturday)

Yesterday

A recap of the suspicious game, which was selected as GOTD coming up later.


Today

Game of the Day: Newport @ Cheltenham (Soccer | England | League Two | 10:00 am EST)

 

GOTD(SE) Picks (5 Units):

Stake Pick Odds
1.5 U Cheltenham + 0 1.60
0.5 U Cheltenham TT over 1 1.51
0.5 U Cheltenham - 0.25 1.90
0.5 U Cheltenham TT over 1.5 2.19
0.5 U Total over 2.25 1.81
0.5 U Cheltenham ML 2.21
0.5 U Mohamed Eisa anytime goal scorer 2.40
0.5 U Goal after minute 74 - YES 1.88

 

5 Facts Favoring GOTD Picks:

  • Cheltenham is at the 12th place of the home standings with a record of 6-2-4. They showed already multiple quality performances against very strong teams this season. They won at home against Swindon (1st place at away standings) and Lincoln ((5th) and they tied Luton ((2nd). Cheltenham lost their last home game against Yeovil. However, the 0-2 didn't reflect the game as it wasn't as lopsided as the result implies. Yeovil's first goal was scored as everybody on the pitch stopped playing due to a handball, except the referee and the goal scorer. Afterwards, Cheltenham was pushing for the equalizer. However, a counterattack by Yeovil on a rainy and muddy pitch ended the match.

  • Newport achieved an away record of 5-3-5 (W-D-L) and they are at the 6th place of the away standings. Sounds decent. However, a closer look at their games implicates, that they are significantly overrated. They won five away games this season, but three of those five victories came against Swindon (24th and last place in the away standings), Forest Green (23th) and Crawley Town ((22th). Additionally, they won against Coventry by 1-0. However, it was a rather balanced match with slight advantages for Coventry. But, Newport's goal was just ludicrous and a tremendous present by Coventry's goalkeeper for Newport. On top of that, they won at Cambridge recently, but only through a last-gasp goal. The assist for that last-gasp goal got Cambridge's entire defense.

  • Newport scored frequently in the last minutes of the their matches and Cheltenham even more frequently in the last minutes of especially their home games.

  • Cheltenham has its full squad available, except the long-term injured players.

  • Whereas, Newport misses three key players: Defender O'Brien, captain Labadie and midfielder Rigg.


Picks: Overview Yesterday
*Explanation of My Betting Approach*  
- I differentiate between the game of the day (GOTD) and further picks. The GOTD picks are ranked according to my preference, whereby the highest listed pick is always my first preference, which would be equivalent to the POTD. Whereas further picks are only ranked descending in terms of kickoff time. Th e earlier a game starts, the higher it is listed.  
- I don't select randomly a game of the day. I'm doing a lot of research and while these research, I go through various games. Some games, which are worth considering and promising, but haven't sufficient potential to be the game of the day, will be listed under the category further picks.  
- I'm adhering to the game-of-the-day-approach with several picks, because it enables a higher degree of diversification and thus reduces the risk of loosing the entire invested stake. On top of this, after intensive research, it is mostly not that easy to select only one ultimate pick. Thus, the diversification eases slightly the pick selection process. 

*Hints*
- "+ 0" is the same as "DNB"   
- "(incl. OT)" is equal to ML (2-way)
- "TT" stands for team total points/goals

*Further Remarks*
- No pick is a guaranteed win, so please only wager what you can afford to lose  
- Everything is possible in betting   
- Most of the picks are placed at 1xbet 
- Sorry for late responses, but I'm usually only around for posting picks
- Feedback is very welcome and appreciated  
- BOL everybuddy   
/r/u_insiderbook Thread