https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1341147206506717187

view from Prof Balloux,

>Depending on modelling assumptions, the increase in the number of cases would be compatible with a relative increase in contagiousness between 37% and 75%.

also including CFR and ability to infect children

Plus as before, we don't know exactly the mechanisms and the biology which is driving this change fully yet. But we do know the exact mutation is associated with increase affinity of S protein to its target.

Fig 1 showed quite clearly the selective advantage of this variant vs other (above 1, purple line) and how it contributes to S gene signal dropout proportion over time (this variant is a part of a group of variant which happens to drop the S gene signal from an otherwise positive signal where 3 genes were targeted).

Fig 2 showed how the variant contributes to the S dropout at Milton Keynes exponentially over time. I don't think human behaviours alone would keep the blue line (other deletion variants) flat.

We don't know how it will affect vaccine yet - only one of several tested monoclonal antibodies showed decreased binding as a result of the mutation on this site (501).