Bingo (well, mostly). Tyreek is much more volatile than these others guys... except Michael Thomas. I dug into this and realized that Mike Thomas is almost as volatile as Tyreek (all the below numbers are for PPR; note that each WR played 16 games except for Davante Adams, who missed the finale vs Detroit):
| Category | DeAndre Hopkins | Tyreek Hill | Davante Adams | Julio Jones | Michael Thomas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.97 | 20.94 | 22.04 | 20.62 | 19.78 |
| Standard Dev. | 7.60 | 12.35 | 4.92 | 7.46 | 10.14 |
| Max | 39 | 43.5 | 35.2 | 30.6 | 39.1 |
| Min | 12.4 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 3.8 | 7.8 |
| Weeks 30+ points | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Weeks 10 or fewer points | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
As we can see, Tyreek by far has the highest standard deviation in weekly PPR scoring among these top 5 WRs. Mike Thomas isn't far behind, with Davante being the paragon of consistency.
Of course, with Tyreek's volatility comes a great ceiling, with 25% of his games going for 30 or more points, including a chart-topping 10-215-2 line in the week 11 shootout @ LA Rams.
Looking at these numbers has firmly cemented Michael Thomas as the least valuable of the big 5. With 25% of his games coming in under 10 PPR points, the lowest average weekly total among the sample, coming off an insanely difficult-to-repeat efficiency season (a bonkers 85% catch rate) and playing for a New Orleans team that is very unlikely to be throwing the ball more, I'm very surprised that he's sitting at #3 among WRs on ADP calculator right now.
Another conclusion after having looked into this is that Davante has an argument to be the overall WR #1 off the board. With an outstanding floor of 16 PPR points per game and finishing just over 1 point better than Nuk on a per-game basis, he had a great year. PLUS, Aaron Rodgers played all year with an MCL sprain and Davante finished just 5 points away from being the #1 overall WR, despite not playing the season finale. I'll definitely be considering him as the #1 overall; getting him any later than WR2 is a coup.