I'll propose a "layperson" answer to that question which is why I had zero reservations about getting the vaccine, which is that we're ~ 5 or 6 months give or take into seeing what happens to people who get shot up with the vaccines (depends on where you start counting), and so far the strongest things that can be shown in terms of long term harm from the vaccine are either total open ended speculation or pointing to negative health outcomes that already occur frequently in the general population that at best aren't connected to the vaccine, at worst are fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent likely risks, probably less risky than the heartburn drugs people buy OTC.

5 or 6 months into Covid there was no need to "speculate" when it came to concerns about lasting damage from the virus, we were already seeing evidence of it, an abundance of it, occurring at higher rates than with other common viruses, and with higher morbidity.

So in my own personal risk calculation, I'm weighing getting a vaccine that has been tested despite people wanting to discount that, is being shown in real time, in real life on tons of people to be safe, for which the main risk is the theoretical possibility of developing as-of-yet-unspecified side effects way down the road that no one predicted, vs. getting a severe and novel viral infection that is not only sucks and could kill me while I have it, but is being shown to leave around 30% of those it infects with lasting health effects that may or may not be reversible depending on what they are (some things like lung scarring are known not to be reversible, in the same way that a scar on your skin isn't reversible). To me it's just night and day, I take the vaccine every time.