Labor negative gearing changes will crash economy, says Morrison

I really don't think Malcolm gets that the the overwhelming majority of the country aren't negative gearers and actually want a correction to happen. At the very least, most are ambivalent.

Some home owners might be a teensy bit worried, but most (able to consider those outside the sphere of their own existence) understand that the recent extreme capital gains aren't sustainable. And I'm not saying a correction wouldn't see job losses or bad outcomes for some, but countries usually bounce back from these crashes reasonably quickly - and the further prices deviate from economic fundamentals, the worse our eventual return to reality will be.

Who will a crash benefit?

Home owners unable to upsize - e.g. those who bought a tiny place to "get onto the ladder" but now cannot afford anything else unless they're willing take on new massive debts. If you're in a shitty yardless unit and you're cramming your three kids into one bedroom, well - a market correction could be a huge benefit to you.

People who get that their kids may want a house someday. It's nice to think of earning property millions then selling up so you can buy a $500,000 motor home and travel the country, but come on. Oldies travelled far and wide in the past - they just stayed in something called fucking motels. The idea of "enjoying your retirement" wasn't invented during the bubble, and there's no need to make extreme housing profits to achieve it in the future. But Boomers often talk of young people having "unrealistic expectations". Perhaps it's time to consider that the Boomers retirement wealth expectations might often be a teensy bit off the mark too.

An endless continuation of the bubble means extreme low interest - and this hurts retirement incomes and savings, increasing risk and speculation. Investment in property to grow retirement wealth also forces up house prices and locks young people out - and those young people need financial stability or there will be no hospitals or infrastructure to support a rapidly aging population. Boomers just might need to rein their expectations in - because previous generations passed a lot of wealth onto their kids. The Boomers parents gave them a free education, and it was the norm to pass on your house too (with the retired often moving into granny flats).

People locked out of the market. Particularly long term.

Business. Well, maybe not the FIRE industry, but over-investment in housing causes chronic under-investment in business growth, and this hurts the economy. Businesses also suffer as home owners and would-be home owners are unable to spend any discretionary income due to high prices - smothering retail, travel, entertainment, dining...

Would-be investors. A property correction would make investment more affordable, if you're into that sort of thing. It would also bring an end to taking on massive debts or indiscriminately buying anything on the assumption prices will increase forever. Property investment would likely return to a state where people look for solid, positively geared investments with real rental growth potential. Flipping for gains isn't a sustainable strategy.

Australia. For all the reasons above. A crash would hurt, but it's going to happen. The sooner it does, the sooner we can bounce back.

/r/australia Thread Parent Link - theguardian.com