At this point I'm pretty skeptical that Liberia's outbreak was ever as big as they claimed. 70-80% of Sierran cases have been confirmed. 80-90% of Guinean cases have been confirmed. In contrast, 30% of Liberian cases have been confirmed.

To this day, Liberia continues to report about 20-25 cases per day, and about half as many deaths, despite the fact that, as this article points out, the last known Ebola patient has been discharged. Even Liberia's reported occupancy from the ETUs, which is at about 20 beds now, suggests no more than 4 high-probability cases are being admitted per day. Yet Liberia continues to report a daily new caseload 4-6x that figure. Lately, it appears quite obvious that Liberia does very little follow-up that would lead to a suspected or probable patient getting removed from the database, dead or alive.

Articles like these are telling what is likely a far more accurate story of what is happening on the ground in Liberia. The Liberian outbreak may have very well be near the end, and changing social habits played a far larger role in achieving that than anyone could have anticipated.

Nevertheless, Sierra Leone continues to report dozens of confirmed cases per day (and the Sierra Leone's cumulative death total is likely 50% of what has been reported), and Guinea appears to be suffering from Ebola more than Liberia now. The proximity between Freetown and Conakry, the current hotspots of Ebola, suggests that the fate of the outbreak in both countries may be inextricably linked. Given how long Guinea has reported what appears to be an endemic level of infections, it may be the case that an effective vaccination campaign will be required to officially end the outbreak in West Africa.

There is still no estimation of the on-going non-Ebola-related human cost due to the long-term collapse in medical services, slow down in the national economies, and strict isolation of numerous regions.