Live 1/2 - Turning TPTK into bluff on monotone flop?

I raise in different positions based on the size of the pot, but how much off of the pot varies based on what I'm running into... For instance, if I'm betting 2x pot and everyone's calling then I'm going to tighten my range and start betting 3x pot, and continue until I start getting fewer callers.

In this position if I'd seen 4 callers pre to anywhere near a 10 bet, and I've got AK, I'm going to make an adjustment right there (same with AA and KK)... Usually when a bet gets 4 limps, it's been getting a bunch of limps all night. And it also matters what the other people at the table are doing with their opening bets.

If I flop a set to a donk lead OTF on this board with 4 limpers, I'm going to know more raises are coming and I'm going to try to get to a showdown (or get a fold) for as cheap as I can... if he's betting half-pot then I can assume another half-pot bet is incoming, and the question becomes "am I ahead?" If he's donking here, and he's a nit, then I'm probably not... so, do I want to call hoping I get ridiculously lucky and I improve on trips that can't hit a flush, or do I bluff here? If he's got a weak flush I can bluff him now and steal the pot, so what's the point in waiting for the next street? If another club falls making his weak flush weaker, then that's great, but if another club falls making his bluff with a strong club better, then I'm boned (and there's more chances to improve his hand than ours with trips)

I could safely bluff here before the half-pot bet he's likely to send next street hoping for a fold if he's weak or getting to the river for less than he would have charged me by checking the turn, or folding.

That would be my plan, bluff now, to either win, or save cash on the turn.

/r/poker Thread Parent