“Looming” collapse.

Hi, I'm not a doctor, but my wife is. Current widespread practice for doctors is to pay based on a concept called wRVUs. I don't recall what the acronym stands for, but essentially every procedure has an associated number corresponding to the wRVUs earned by it.

This system rose out of Medicare and Medicaid billing. Doctors bill these and they get X dollars per Y wRVUs billed. In private hospitals, there is strong pressure from hospital administration to bill for as many as you can possibly justify, let alone the fact that doctor's salary is directly tied to them. It's a perverse incentive structure that encourages volume over quality of care.

Moreover, physician compensation is only high relative to normal jobs, and that's because protectionism from the American Medical Association, the same forces that have eroded teacher and even lawyer pay have been protected by keeping the number of doctors artificially low (by controlling the number of residency slots). In a just world, many professionals would be making doctor money. And given the amount of training required (4 years college, 4 years medical school, 3+ years residency, 2+ years specialist fellowship = 13+ years after high school), it's not like becoming a doctor is the best path for making buckets of money. You can get a job as a programmer making near doctor money with far less time investment, giving you a sizable (nearly a decade!) headstart with savings, and the job is a hell of a lot less stressful.

Finally, hospital administrations are currently doing an end run around of doctors entirely by prioritizing NPs, which will certainly reduce the compensation of doctors in the coming decade by keeping the number of required doctors as low as possible. This also damages quality of care, because NPs don't actually have the same level of understanding. It also can cause the price of care to increase drastically, as they order more, irrelevant tests that they don't fully understand how to interpret. An NP's wRVU is billed for at the same cost as a doctor's (at least that's my understanding), and because they're billing for more unnecessary procedures they cost the patient way more while earning the hospital more and costing them less. Because medical costs go up, insurance companies, which have their profits limited by law to a percentage of total medical costs, also see rising profits. That's why there's such a strong push and a sudden proliferation of NPs. That's why state legislatures are trying to remove oversight requirements.

So shit's fucked, but don't be so quick to blame doctors, the entire system is diseased from the top, and an individual doctor has very little power or say in this.

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