He is playing for a pardon.

If he is, he's delusional and willfully ignorant.

That is his only real hope of walking away from this.

A pardon doesn't get him a walk. A pardon gets him prison. State prisons rather than federal.

A pardon only absolves him of federal crimes. Mueller has been working in concert with the state's attorneys general. In the event of a pardon, he'd likely be charged with crimes in the states of New York and Virginia, and perhaps Florida. A pardon will absolve him of none of those.

Manifort's attorneys know this to be the truth. If their client believes a pardon will save him, he's delusional.

And there are tremendous downsides for the president in granting him a pardon. A pardon absolves him of federal jeopardy, compelling testimony against the president if so asked. A pardon could also be seen as yet another count of obstruction of justice by the president.

Unless Manifort has a treasure trove of secret recordings with Trump, the president is better off having a scumbag like Manifort do a deal with the prosecutor. Manifort's word isn't worth much. His testimony would be easy to challenge.

It's anyone's guess as to why Manifort refuses to turn state's evidence, but if it's hope of a pardon, the man is living in a land of make believe.