I think this is going to be the first real challenge to Powell's hawkish commentary. This is the first time where the vast majority of investors seem to think (as evidenced by the Fed watch distribution) that the Fed will reduce rates without any real warning or commentary ahead of time. Before the 50 basis point change, Powell had given multiple in-person comments that indicated he/they were considering lower rates. But this time, at least so far, we've seen none of that. Plus, the core services inflation which he has highlighted as being particularly important is still above 2% annualized.

So, I think this will be the real test: is Powell a flop, whose words were all flap, or does he mean business? In reality, the difference between 4.75% and 5% is likely insignificant. But the message it would send to go with the 50 this time would be very effective to reign in some of the overzealous loosening that he has previously claimed to want to prevent.