Exactly this. The vast majority of homeowners and investors haven’t bought in the last five years and have much more equity in their properties. If prices massively crashes by 50% i would still be ahead on all but my most recent property. I would probably consider dollar buying in to the dip rather than sell investment properties. The people I saw hurt by the gfc were ones who sold out at the dip for fear of further falls. Those who held steady saw their portfolios bounce back comparatively quickly.

At the time the logic was you would have come out ahead better if you’d not been in the market at all and bought at the dip only. Leaving aside the stupidity of trying to catch a falling knife, the flaw with that strategy would have been waiting outside the market for a dip and missing all the gains beforehand.

Markets cycle. They occasionally dip. In this case there is a fairly decent floor because the majority of us will be fine and won’t need to panic sell even if prices unwind a bit. God I remember buying a new house for $70k and paying 16% interest.

People have been screaming bubble for at least the last decade. It’s worth paying some attention to and being prudent. But people who have sat out the last ten years are probably going to come out behind for having done so.

As has been said a 40% drop would mean blood in the streets. It would also mean more seasoned investors piling back in and putting a floor under / bouncing back from a significant dip. Buying when others are scared is a very tried and true strategy.