Chinese qualifiers
Note: i have only watched chinese dota since a few days ago in preparation for the qualfiiers, but mainly for Ileague bets, because the timezones make it really difficult. A lot of the predicitons will be based on basic reasearch and my experience. The safest way of betting is obviously skipping the first batch of games.
Note 2: Some teams haven't played a single competitive game with the new patch so their current state is unkown while the vast majority hasn't played more than 3-5 games
Note 3: when a team qualifies some times they dont play seriously to save strats, to take a breath before the next phase or they throw on purpose to try to put a thougher opponent in a complicated situation. It happened with mouz vs Goblak's team last year where goblack tryharded as hard as they could while mouz fooled around ,lots of hats were losts , the odds were like 85 15
Chinese tiers are something like this according to their stats
1 CDEC VG.P Ehome HGT
2 Newbee.Y EP
2b Tongfu.w
3 the rest
??? Wings who won the chinese qualfiiers. They could either be very good or very bad but keep in mind the chinese qualifier was probably the most competitive of all the qualfiiers
Note: the top tiers teams are not unbeatable or at least in theory, they have a significant amount of losses against lower teams which actually make no sense like CDEC losing to braveheart 20 who at the same time losses to DK . This is comparable with Empire/VP/LGD/VG losing against a no name team 2 0. If those losses are 322s i dont know.
CDEC vs VG.P: CDEC has some more games won against VG.P in the previous patch. i watched VG.P vs Malaysia and i have to say VG.P is not a bad team, they could have probably won vs malaysia if their draft was better. CDEC they consistently beat HGT tongfu, go even or beat ehome although their record is even,etc however they have some unexplainable losses against lower tier teams, but again I didnt watch the games so no clue of what happened, some of these loses happened at the beginning of the patches however the other teams shouldnt have had a chance like braveheart. In my opinion is going to be very even. Either CDEC VGP or Ehome are going to take the qualfiers IMO. The group A is a lot harder and more competitive than the Group B
Tongfu vs HGT: HGT beat tongfu consistently in previous patches, they only lost a series 2 0 but it was because they were practicing tiny wisp combo and the series didnt matter as they had already qualfiied. That being said they did tie a series 1 1 vs tongfu in this patch but I havent watched it so I cant comment much on that, Tongus matches record leaves a lot to be desired. In theory HGT should have this
Oldboys vs EP : oldboys is bottom of the barrel kinda at least according to their match history, they tied against team braveheart which loses to DK. Based on what ive seen in EPs game vs Alliance they dont have a deep understaing of the game but they tend to copy strategies they see others teams execute, Alliance isntantly figured them out and played them perfectly which caused me quite a shock when they lost to Malaysia. They are okay at what they do but what they do doesnt work against good teams that know what they are actually doing. Id favor EP although its likely it ends 1 1. I can't believe Zhou and YYF would become so terrible after leaving iG alhtough not that iG is doing well either.
Ehome vs Tongfu.W: Ehome is top 3 strongest team that being said they sometimes throw but I dont think they will nor I think TW will win even with throws. Ehome should win with ease
Tongfu.W vs Newbee.Y: haven't seen either play but Newbee. Y based on stats alone should be 1 tier ahead of T.W, can't say much else. T.W has more chance to upset than the teams from the previous 2 games tho. Newbee.Y beat them 2 0 in the Ileague qualifiers
VGP vs HGT: In my opinion VGP is better than HGT but yet again I havent seen HGT play. Id recommend making a decision based on how they play the previous series. Based on what I could see, VGP vs Malaysia and the stats on gosugamer (unexplainable losses) Id say that it can go either way, itll most likely end 1 1 or VGP 2 0 (this is without watching the previous games).
Tongfu vs Wings: Wings won the qualifiiers facing Newbee miracle in the finals. N.M is a low tier team but Tongfu isnt that much better. Id risk betting small/medium on wings. Given that tongfu might get rolled over by other teams i dont think the odds will be good.
EP vs Ehome: This has a chance of upset in my opinion because teams with Rotk tend to not use their heads when they play so since EP tends to follow whatever works something might go wrong for Ehome. In their stats Ehome has only played 2 times against EP, they lost a series 2 0 and won a Bo1 against them.
Ehome Old boys: Should be easy for Ehome not much to say
NewbeeY. EP : based on stats alone N.Y should win the series however given that this is the last game and that this group is basically NB vs EP vs Ehome this series will decide who gets an spot for the next phase. youll have e nough information from previous games to make a decision