I'd say this was a nerf to Smoke's mid-to-long range capabilities. I think his shotgun will still be meta as it's crucial for site remodeling and people will just have to get used to the recoil on the SMG-11. Based off what I've played on the TTS, it's bad but it doesn't feel so bad that it's un-learnable.
His kit, especially his smokes, is way too crucial to make him drop out of the meta or for his pickrate to plummet significantly. That being said, I can definitely see more people going towards the FMG9, especially if there's already an operator like Mira who can remodel instead. However, I still feel like shotgun + SMG11 will be the typical go-to. He's just going to suck a lot more at medium or long ranges.