I am always suspicious of the "first adopters" concept in new technology, and suspect it may apply to the singularity too. A couple of quick examples: The first television was created in 1927 but wasn't widely adopted until the 1960's. The first CD player came out in 1982 but we didn't see wider adoption until the mid to late 1990s. I imagine the level of complexity is a factor, but the earliest iterations are very rarely when we see true scale.

I think that real autonomous vehicle adoption isn't 5-10 years away but more like 25-50 years away, if not longer. Similarly, the singularity isn't 20-30 years away, but more like 150-200 years away, if we can ever get there. I think there are a lot more technological hurdles in the way than we think, a lot of political, sociological, and resource challenges (among others) then people realize that set timelines back.

Happy to provide context.