February 12, 2016

Fantasy Prospect Rankings

The Top 101 Dynasty League Prospects for 2016

by Bret Sayre

Plenty has been written about the underwhelming state of the minor leagues overall, but this certainly applies in dynasty leagues as well. The wave of graduations that we saw during 2015, combined with a general lack of high-end prospect depth in the minors heading into the season, has left a plush underbelly in these rankings—quite possibly the softest since I started writing about fantasy prospects more than a half-decade ago. Of course, this is not to take away from the excitement of the names at the top, as there are future superstars on here, but the names in the 75-100 range represent players and player profiles who would not have made this list in years past.

This is something that most of us know, but some owners still let it affect them as they make decisions heading into the 2016 season. There’s such an aura involved with being a Top 100 or Top 101 prospect that we forget that not all Top 100 or Top 101 lists are created equally. This can, and possibly should, lead to a switch in methodology for rebuilding owners. The common belief out there is that in order to reverse the fortunes of your dynasty league roster, you need to shift your equity into your farm team. Invest in the future, as they say. However, with the minor leagues in a down cycle right now, the better use of those resources might be investing in post-hype players as a primary source.

You don’t need to go back very far to find some highly regarded prospects who have not worked out the way scouts intended. Taking a review of the Top 50 fantasy prospects back in 2013, you find a number of names who have lost value and could be had for very reasonable price, yet are not eligible for this list and are not in the “all is lost” camp (sorry, Mike Olt). Jurickson Profar (1) is the big fish in that pond, but he won’t come cheaply. Nick Castellanos (19), Jonathan Singleton (22), Trevor Bauer (24), and Tyler Skaggs (26) all represent some of the higher-end values on this market—though my guess is that Singleton and Skaggs aren’t getting the post-hype respect they probably deserve. And the beautiful thing about post-hype players is that there’s no shortage of them. But we’re not here to talk about that subset, we’re here to talk about the prospects you should and do care about heading into 2016.

And before we can do that, we must wade through the fine print…

There are a few list-specific disclaimers to go over before we jump in. Again, these rankings are for fantasy purposes only, and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. Additionally, home parks need to be factored in, just as when we are talking about a major-league player. If Corey Dickerson’s fantasy potential shrinks when going from Colorado to Tampa Bay, we can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organization, so while it is not a heavy consideration, it is reflected. Most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup.

Within the list below, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including their potential fantasy value (in dollars) at their peak and the risk factor associated with reaching that peak. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any that carry impact. For this exercise, we defined “impact” has having the potential to be in the top 15-20 players in a given category. For instance, impact in home runs roughly equates to the potential to hit 30, and impact for strikeouts is the potential to punch out 200. Then you’ll see a realistic ceiling and floor for each prospect, purely in terms of rotisserie value. The comments are specifically brief because I’ve already written fantasy-specific comments on each of these players in the individual top-10 lists (which are great and you should read, if you haven’t already).

So without any further ado, here is newest batch of the best 101 prospects for dynasty leagues: