Monthly Stock Picks

I wouldn't say that I have a "process", but the majority of my ideas come from one of three methods:

1) The news (this is probably the least common generator). I really like reading the analysis pieces in finance/economics related papers. I'm on an FT kick right now - been reading all of Izabella Kaminska's pieces. Can't tell if she's crazy or brilliant, but it's stimulating either way.

Ultimately it can lead me to speculate about market dislocations - those tend to be lower quality ideas, since they're driven more by speculation than by value. However, the EMH is definitely not true on an instantaneous basis, and so sometimes market turbulence produces some unnoticed value. In those cases there's unmistakable excess return for timely actors.

2) I steal other peoples' ideas, or recycle old ones. I read Corner of Berkshire and Hathaway, VIC, 13Fs, even reddit (very rarely, unfortunately).

Sometimes, what would have qualified as a "good" idea when it was originally pitched has turned into a "great" one, either via random price action or new developments related to the business.

3) I pick a lot of random 10-Ks and just read them. If something interests me, I read more. Otherwise I just move on. It's not really a loss to read the duds, in my opinion, since I tend to learn something about the world. I've become aware of a lot of industries and businesses I didn't even know existed.

This can produce some really amazing ideas, though. I tend to bias my random picks toward small companies, because the more analysts are attention, the more likely it is that the price reflects reality.

This method produced what I'd consider my best idea ever only a few months ago. I'm currently beating myself up for, as Munger puts it, "buying with an eyedropper what you ought to be buying a lot of". I still haven't talked about it because I'm holding out hope that lightning will strike twice and I'll get some more cheap shares.

/r/investing Thread