Fixed. Variable usually wins but this is a generationally volatile interest rate environment and gambling with variable right now seems foolish.

Look at any bank or economist, they all project a certain percentage “with risks to the upside.” Look at any chart, and you see rates absolutely rocketing up. Look at inflation, you see CPI that hasn’t existed in decades. The only reason to consider variable is because of the large spread between it and fixed rates, but when you see this historically rapid increase of 50 and 75 basis point increases, that spread seems to be closing within a couple of months when it usually would take at least a year.

While it’s possible rates could stabilize or decrease, it doesn’t seem to be the more likely outcome. This is not a good time for gambling.