NEO will pay a GAS dividend. Once the system matures and the market sorts everything out, NEO will likely trade at a multiple of that dividend. The dividend will be high enough that the multiple will exceed 1.0 NEO to 1.0 GAS. Your argument is really whether the system as a whole will be worth less than people think, because it will not be used enough over the next 1-3 years to drive the price of GAS up (which would in turn drive the price of NEO up).

Currently, 1,000 NEO generates about 0.5 GAS per day, which is equivalent to 182.5 per year per 1,000 NEO, or 0.1825 per year for each NEO. Stocks can trade with a price per earning ratio above 40:1, but we don't know how this will work with crypto until the market matures so let's use a 10:1 multiple, which would result in a ratio of 1.825 NEO to each 1.000 GAS. The amount of GAS automatically generated will decrease each year, which will decrease the NEO to GAS value.

More importantly, as a few others have pointed out here, Erik Zhang, one of the founders, clearly stated in the AMA with Erik and Da Hongfei that NEO holders will receive "much more" GAS from service fees than the automatic GAS generation:

Erik: "the NEO holder will get benefits in two ways: one is each block will reward to him so that if he hold 1 neo and keep 22 years so as to get 1 gas. On the another hand, he will get benefits from the gas consuming of the users of NEO system. If no one use the system, he will just get 1 gas after 22 years with 1 neo. But you can imagine if more and more users for the NEO system, how much the NEO holder will get, much more than the first way, right?"

We will have to let the platform grow before we'll know how much GAS we'll receive each year from each NEO. It's possible Erik is incorrect. But if what he says plays out, and "much more" means double, then with our 10:1 ratio, it's possible that NEO will be worth 5.475 GAS initially and 3.65 GAS when the automatic generation ends in 22 years.