First play is Celtics -4 @ ORL. The Celtics are red-hot, winning their last 5 games by 8+, while the Magic are on a 8 game losing streak. The last time both teams played was on Friday in Boston, and the Celtics won soundly. Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and Orlando is 0-5, and while I usually don't consider ATS records good indicators, I think it just shows the stark difference in team mojo. Boston is superior in offensive and defensive efficiency, plays at a fast pace, and creates a lot of turnovers (the Magic have also been playing especially sloppy as of late). I see all signs pointing to Celtics here, so I'm taking it, though I would be wary of the recent ATS performances matched with some apparent reverse line movement.

Next is Dallas/Suns OVER 199, mainly because of how bad PHX's defense is. The Suns are 27th in defensive efficiency, 30th in opponent eFG, 29th in opponent 3-pt percentage, and 30th in opponent shooting percentage. The Suns are also one of the league's top 3 point shooting teams and are pretty good in the fast court, as they are ranked 7th while Dallas is ranked 27th in opponent fast break points. The Suns play fast, shoot a lot of 3's, and give up a lot of points, so 199 seemed like a decent line. Also not sure how much stock people put in ESPN's PickCenter, but they have over 201.5 hitting at a 60% chance, and I'm getting a 199 line, so could be decent value.

Last pick is Charlotte -4 @ LAL. Don't have time to go into as much detail here, but LA has lost 9 in a row and is among the bottom dweller in every single statistical category I look at. Charlotte isn't great and hasn't been playing very good basketball lately either, but are better offensively and defensively.