Managed to break even last night. Seemed to be a night against the public. Link to last night's post
Season: 10 Correct - 8 Wrong - 1 Push
Props : 8 - 6 - 1
Yesterday: 1 - 2 - 1
Props : 0-0
Thoughts on last night: I shouldn't have even posted my picks, I dedicate too much time to Football/Fantasy on Saturday nights and Sunday mornings to get in some good analysis. Although, I wouldn't say I did horribly. Cavs missed the cover by 1 pt (I know a lot of people got a better line for the push), the Nuggets pushed after a horrendous 3rd quarter (again, many lines had them at +7.5, and would have covered), and the wolves covered easily. This was my worst night of the year from a pure pick standpoint, but still broke even unit wise. Had a Jameis Winston +110 player prop (TD+INT o2.5) that he covered in the early 3rd, so still finished well for myself (apologies for those who only tailed me in NBA!).
PICKS (PENDING):
Read write ups. Taking early picks, but will need to get afternoon injury talk before locking in.
Brooklyn Nets/Los Angeles Clippers Under 214 (3u): The Clippers will transition back to a strong defense tonight. Griffin/Jordan will be the toughest frontcourt that Brook Lopez has faced this season. With Jeremy Lin, and his backup, still out, there won't be much scoring coming from this team. The Clippers defense is night and day compared to the Suns team they faced two nights ago. Expect a low scoring, slow pace game. EDIT: Well, all of my writeups are slowly becoming irrelevant as injuries/sits come out. Lopez is now out tonight. I still like this pick though.
Oklahoma City Thunder +3 (1u) (Major line shift, now at -1.5. Throwing 4u down): Westbrook hasn't been playing nearly as many minutes as he can handle; the back to back doesn't worry me. Detroit can be extremely anemic on offense. With that said, I think Drummond will be a real issue for Adams, who played his most minutes since game 2. This Pistons defense doesn't really give up a ton of points to any single position, but has trouble with all-star caliber players. I'm expecting a close game that OKC will close out in the end. Early contender for moneyline. EDIT: Hopefully you guys took my advice for the early moneyline. With Drummond now doubtful, the spread is -1.5. I am taking it at 4u with this line as well.
Oklahoma City Thunder/Detroit Pistons Over 200 (1u): Like I said I'm expecting a close game, and with both of these teams, that means points points points. OKC and Detroit will each eclipse the 100 point mark tonight. EDIT: with Drummond's absence I am less confident in this pick. However, I still like it enough to keep it up.
Indiana Pacers -7 (2u): I expect Paul George to play tonight. Aside from last night, this Magic team has looked awful. While I wouldn't put the Pacers anywhere above an average team at the moment, I expect them to be more than capable of pulling an easy win against an exhausted team. The Magic really had to fight for every point last night. Vucevic in early foul trouble forced Ibaka and Biyombo to tie/play season high minutes; which is good, considering the Pacer's interior defense is non-existent. I don't think this team is capable of a back to back win. I'm hopeful for the Pacers to enter the 4th with a nice cushion.
Philadelphia 76ers/Houston Rockets Over 213 (2u): If Embiid and Okafor both play, I will definitely double down on this line. I doubt Harden will match his 39.9m season average in an expected blowout, but the 76ers have been putting up 100 points against better defenses. The Rockets will still need points to come in from somewhere... this is a D'Antoni offense after all.
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline (1u): Note!! This pick is an EARLY assumption that Hill, Hood, and Favors are OUT. Do not take if they are expected to play! I'm jumping 1u now while it's still sitting at +215. If they play I will NOT advocate for the spread on either side of the ball.
Moneyline Parlay (1u): Pacers, Thunder, Rockets, Spurs, Clippers. This is essentially a +210 bet as of current lines. I like it enough to put 1u down.
Player Props:
Will be at the Giants game tonight. Not sure if I will be posting player props. EDIT: Writeups will be short.
** are giving up a good amount of rebounds to both PGs and SFs. With Drummond out, I hope there will be even more boards to go around for OKC.
J.Harden rebounds+assists under 19½: I don't expect him to play as much as he has been. And against the 76ers, I like him more as his scoring self than as a distributor who can get aggressive for the boards.
H.Whiteside rebounds over 13: Purely because the Heat have nothing else going for them right now, I trust Whiteside to dominate Pau aggressively.
K.Leonard rebounds+assists under 8½: He has only hit this line twice this year, both against the Jazz. The Heat are hot garbage but I'm hoping that translates more to points scored than anything else.