Before I start the analysis lemme first start by saying I hate betting on teams with a standin. I will reason why later and this changes my odds. First imma state the facts:
ESC is an actually pretty good team. Their normal roster of neex, minise, soon, repo, and exus were pretty good. They win against teams like SpaceSoldiers and Reason who's old roster was really good. There are many other convincing wins against tier 3 teams but those don't really need to be mentioned. nEo on the other hand just doesn't have any wins that stand out to me except maybe a win against enso lol. The thing that really stands out to me is the fact that they lost to SpaceSoldiers 4 times in a row, losing 6/7 maps.
Maps:
-dust2 - ESC is pretty good at this map beating the old Reason and SS but they have a 50% win rate as opposed to nEo who have played it once and lost to SS. Edge to ESC
-inferno - ESC almost always loses this map getting destroyed by Epsilon 16-5 one time. nEo has played it 3 times and only decent team they beat was eSuba. Slight edge to ESC still for their experience on the map
-train - eh ESC kinda inconsistent on this map only win that is important is maybe their win on this map against Torpedo. However, nEo is 0-3 on this map losing to SS, CSGL, and SK. All those teams are at least a tier above nEo so you cant look too deep into it. That said, that means nEo is at a huge disadvantage in experience on this map. Slight edge to ESC because we don't really know how good nEo is on this map considering they have only played really good teams.
-cache - both teams are statistically good on this map however ESC beats and plays against better teams. nEo almost beat CSGL and OnlineBots. It's hard to discern who is better at this map but since ESC plays better teams ill give a slight edge to them on this map.
-mirage - ESC is not too good at this map one day beating a team like Reason and the next day losing 6-16 to RCTIC. nEo on the other hand has played this only 5 times as beat SS in OT in one of them. That said I still can't give them the edge they just lose too much on this map and barely play it.
-overpass - ESC is pretty bad at this map with a 30% win rate and nEo is 2/3 on this map and their loss against SS was 14-16. Slight edge to nEo they don't look too bad on this map
-cobble - same thing again. ESC not too consistent on this map but nEo has only played the map once and lost to (you guessed it) SpaceSoldiers. Edge to ESC
After reading the name Space Soldiers so many times I thought I was giving an analysis on them. Anyways, ESC is clearly the better team with more wins against better teams and nEo simply just loses most matches.
However, now let's talk about how repo is being replaced by stark. Repo in the recent matches from what ive seen never too frags but almost never bottom frags he's normally somewhere in the middle so he's a pretty consistent player. Having stark, if he performs poorly, can actually hurt ESC. It's not like repo was the weak link of ESC and having stark wouldn't make a difference.
That said I don't think stark could hurt them to the point of making them lose. Maybe MAYBE one map I don't think they'll lose. With repo would be a 75-25 but I think without him would probably be a 65-35. GLHF
(Lemme know what you think and give more info if I missed anything)