The pendulum you speak of is regarding the LP farmers in the NPC militia corp. People who actually participate in FW at an organized level on the Caldari side are mostly apart of the "CMC" or Caldari Militia Coalition. The 3 primary alliances are TEMPLIS, HECON, and BLOC. Don't confuse/conflate the LP farmers in the NPC State Protectorate with the players who actually fight to control the warzone and enact changes in the area.

Calmil has reached T4 and T5 2-3 times in the last 2 years... and the warzone flipped back to the largely dominant Galmil again... however this time with the departure of BLOC and TEMPLIS, Calmil has lost 60-70 active players (not LP farmers or random StatePro solo pilots).

Over the past 3-5 years, the actual main Galmil alliances enjoyed a numerical advantage of 2-3 vs 1. I'd venture it has probably grown to 9-10 v 1.

Galmil is very powerful by itself and can take on nearly every lowsec power on its own; they also add sizable numbers in nullsec conflicts. Put the weight of the Imperium behind them (and Snuff immediately in Black Rise), and there is literally no one in lowsec or FW space that can even hope to legitimately combat them.

Organized FW is dead. There will be the few nasty LP farmers and a few small groups left doing PvP in FW areas, but organized FW (at least in the Calmil / Galmil side) is dead until CCP makes FW much better, or there is an overnight magical influx of 200-300 more moderate / high SP players who want to fight in Calmil.