Never has margin for error at the top been smaller

statistic to try to digest before tonight’s mouthwatering clash at the Etihad Stadium: only once in the Premier League era have a team with at least 15 wins in their first 20 matches failed to win the title — yet that is the unhappy fate that awaits two of Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur this season.

That says much about a season in which the leading teams are racking up wins and points at an extraordinary rate. Tottenham’s tally of 48 points from 21 matches is only one fewer than Arsenal’s Invincibles had at the same stage in 2003-04. It is the same as Manchester United had at this point in 2007-08, when they finished as champions of England and Europe, and ten more than Sir Alex Ferguson’s team had at the equivalent stage of their Treble-winning campaign in 1998-99, yet Tottenham lie six points adrift of Liverpool, having played a game more.

Jürgen Klopp has been citing the long-accepted wisdom that the title race is a marathon, not a sprint, but this is one of those rare seasons when it has felt like both — or at least like a marathon being run by Eliud Kipchoge. Liverpool’s tally of 54 points from their first 20 games is bettered only by Chelsea in 2005-06 and by City on the way to their record-breaking total of 100 points last season. The difference is that, while both of those teams had turned the title race into a procession before the halfway point, nobody, least of all Klopp, expects this season to be anything like so one-sided.

The nature of the Premier League has changed as the gap in financial and playing resources between the biggest clubs and the rest has grown. Ferguson used to say in the 1990s and early 2000s that a title-chasing team could afford to lose no more than six times in 38 matches, but that was when managers regarded 40 points as the target for avoiding relegation.

The competitive balance has shifted, leaving precious little margin for error. This time two years ago, the only instance of a team winning 30 games in a top-flight season was when Liverpool did it across 42 matches in 1978-79. Chelsea, though, won 30 out of 38 under Antonio Conte in 2016-17 and then City, under Pep Guardiola, won 32 last term.

Remarkably, Liverpool, at this stage of the campaign, are on course for 102 points. With 17 wins and only three draws, it is the type of form that would usually have publicity hungry bookmakers rushing to pay out on the outcome of the title race, but not this season, with City and indeed Spurs primed to capitalise on any slip-up. Liverpool are, as of Boxing Day, the bookies’ favourites to win the title, but only narrowly. City, by the same token, are favourites to win this evening. Should they do so, cutting the lead to four points, the dynamics of the title race will shift again.

Never in the history of English football has the margin for error at the top been smaller. Never has there been such an expectation that the title challengers will sweep aside their opponents week after week. That is what Liverpool have done for the most part this season, winning all 14 of their games against teams from outside the top six as well as beating Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal, and drawing with City, Chelsea and Arsenal. It is why suffering back-to-back defeats against Crystal Palace and Leicester City felt so damaging for Guardiola’s team. The same applies to Tottenham’s defeats by Watford and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

The expectation, of course, is that Liverpool will suffer a blip at some stage. A blip can easily become something more serious for a team that lack experience when it comes to competing for trophies. So far, though, they have shown little sign of vulnerability. They have developed a formidable home record but far more impressive — far more disconcerting for their rivals, perhaps — is the way that they have navigated a series of difficult away games. After tonight, with barely half the season gone, they will have played seven of their ten fixtures against the other teams in the top six (three at home, four away). They have already chalked off victories away to Leicester, Wolves and Watford, which have been among the few away fixtures where the other leading teams have slipped up.

None of this is to indulge the idea that Liverpool are champions-elect or even that they will be if their unbeaten record survives this evening, but Guardiola’s words on Sunday seemed to reflect the gravity of the situation rather than any desperation to plant seeds of uncertainty in the leaders’ minds. “Of course I think they’re going to drop points,” he said, “but not too many. If we want to be there as far as possible until the end, we have to win games.”

To this point, Liverpool have kept winning and winning. In statistical terms, it is the third-strongest start made by any team in the Premier League era. You have to drop down to the seventh in that list to find a team who did not go on to win the title. That was Manchester United in 2003-04, who fell away in the second half of that season as Arsenal’s Invincibles came to the fore. Liverpool can ill afford to give City’s Centurions the same kind of encouragement.

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