3. NEW HAMPSHIRE CNN/WMUR POLL: Sanders 50%, Clinton 40%

NEW HAMPSHIRE CNN/WMUR POLL: Sanders 50%, Clinton 40%

?

Oh?

Of course if Sanders is going to win he needs to win the early states, not sure when I ever said otherwise?

Your prediction on Iowa might be wrong, but it might be right, if it's wrong, it's basically over for Sanders right out of the gate. Winning NH is a VERY safe bet, I expect him to take the state without much fight... but if he's already lost Iowa at that point, it's an easy argument for Clinton to say "neighboring state, of course he won" and move on from it.

Nevada is a tough one, it's a stretch to assume Sanders can "win" Nevada, he might, but a lot of things would have to change between now and then to do so. SC on the other hand... Sanders has zero chance, even if he wins Iowa, NH and Nevada, he's not going to win SC... but then again, if he succeeds in other states, he doesn't need SC anyways. No candidate needs to win every state, in fact, they never do.

I do agree national numbers are worthless, it's the states that matter... fun fact, there were polls out in mid December 2007 that showed Clinton and Obama within 10% of each other, such as this poll from reuters/zogby:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/huckabee_and_giuliani_tied_in.html

Clinton sat at 40% and Obama at 32%, a sign of things to come.

There was even a Hotline/FD poll released on Dec. 10th, what do you know, exactly 7 years ago today with Clinton at 35% and Obama at 30%, a five point spread.

So again, national polling data doesn't matter in the primary, but it does demonstrate trend, at this point in 2007 the trend towards Obama was already becoming clear, where as this time around with Sanders, it's the exact opposite, his trend is flat and Clinton is the only one gaining traction.

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