No Respect! 16 Experts pick Packers but nobody picks Vikings to go to Super Bowl

I'm not too concerned about betting odds. Here's what a Packers fan post in /r/NFL:

No. Betting odds are about forecasting outcomes, not influencing bets. Sometimes they will shift a bit here and there to reflect popular opinion, but the goal is not to balance the bets, it's to balance the odds.

If the casinos based odds to favor the most popular teams, sharps could make unlimited money betting against the Patriots, Cowboys and Packers. This would be catastrophic for the casinos, so the threat of the sharps will leave their odds balanced based on outcomes, not bets. That's how you can have a betting line where 80% of bets are all on one side.

And as long as the casino forecasts appropriately - as long as their underdogs cover 50% of the time - they'll break even.

This is one of the most common misconceptions in sports. Some people point to shifting lines and say "what about that??" There is some wiggle room in lines due to the size of the vig, so slight shifts can happen based on popularity. But sometimes these lines shift because of the sharps, not the popularity, and sometimes it's because of a change in information.

/r/minnesotavikings Thread Link - m.startribune.com