Northern Ireland notches up a year without a government

The other aggravating factor is Brexit. Most republicans oppose it, since it would weaken ties with the Republic of Ireland. Most unionists support it, for exactly the same reason.

The latest round of talks features two new figures. Karen Bradley, whom Mrs May appointed Northern Ireland secretary earlier this month, was previously the culture secretary and has no previous experience of the province. Meanwhile Sinn Fein will soon be led by Mary Lou McDonald, who will take over from Gerry Adams. Republicans hope that Ms McDonald, who has no past connection to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), will attract a new generation of voters to the party.

That ambition, and the chances of success for the talks, have been dented by the antics of Barry McElduff, a Sinn Fein MP. On January 5th, the anniversary of a massacre in 1976 of ten Protestant civilians by the IRA near the village of Kingsmill, Mr McElduff posted a video of himself larking about in a supermarket with a loaf of Kingsmill bread on his head. He was eventually forced to resign. Sinn Fein should have no problem winning the forthcoming by-election for his seat, but his behaviour has made a mockery of republican complaints about the DUP’s “disrespect” for its opponents. The contest will be bitter.

What if the talks go nowhere? With the Assembly suspended, Northern Ireland is already being governed mainly from Westminster. In the absence of a deal between Sinn Fein and the DUP, the province could revert to “direct rule” by the British. In practice that might not look very different. But the breakdown of a key part of the Good Friday Agreement is a cause for deep concern. The accord has formed the basis for Northern Ireland’s prosperity and security. During the 1990s around 550 people were killed as a result of sectarian violence. In the past decade, fewer than 30 have been. Few believe that the end of devolution could result in a return to previous levels of violence. But the longer Northern Ireland’s politicians play for time, the greater the risks they take with the hard-won peace.

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