You know, you make a great point about Masvidal's grappling skills. I didn't really weigh the Maia fight because I've only watched highlights of it and admittedly it looked lopsided for Maia. Even if Maia and Askren have different grappling styles, it's still really impressive nonetheless not to get submitted by that guy. Add that to Askren's non-existent stand-up game and we got a stew brewing. Personally I felt Askren's win, even if we're not giving credit because of an early stoppage, showed me that Askren can get himself into those positions against elite fighters.

It would make for a great fight if Masvidal knocks Askren's chin back a few inches to a more normal anatomy, but he will need to capitalize early—like you say in the first or second round—to make it possible, I think. If Askren gets him to the ground, I don't think Masvidal can get back up to his feet. If he does, though, I'm throwing all my analysis into the wind and I'll be rooting for him.