For Jobs/Employment data, Justin Wolfers is the best.
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers
For some Zen;
Today's jobs report may have moved the market closer to believing in a June liftoff, and the Fed farther away.
And regarding today's report, a tweetstorm:
It could be that wage growth is just around the corner, but c'mon, those Cassandras have been saying that for years
More likely: There still remains a lot more slack in the labor market - part-timers, folks who gave up looking, etc
Also likely: The "natural rate" of unemployment isn't 5.5%. But how much lower? Is 4% sustainable?
The Phillips Curve is now so flat that the effect of labor market slack on wages & prices is barely discernable
4b. A flat Phillips Curve could be due to anchored expectations, or labor's bargaining power getting clobbered
The Fed has more than succeeded in anchoring inflation expectations, they've clobbered them, & they're below 2%.
Are international pressures relevant right now? Much of the rest of the world has a lot of slack, and no inflation.
An argument I've heard: Slack is relevant to price inflation but not wage inflation. Some empirical support for this; little theoretical.
The hawk v. dove argument right now is -- Theory: The Phillips Curve predicts inflation versus Empirics: There's no evidence of inflation.
My guess: So many uncertainties about the future of inflation, but few indications that it's an actual threat or will be soon.
We're learning that the recovery could have a lot further to run without igniting inflation. Put me in #TeamWhitesofTheirEyes
Finally, a reminder: Don't confuse nominal wage growth, and real wage growth, One is relevant to the Fed, the other to living standards