PEW: Muslims are fastest growing religion, will surpass Christianity in next 50 years; the Irreligious will decline.

I don't think I'd call Turkey a free county in terms of religion.

I agree, as the regime is somewhat anti-religion, both in terms of Muslims and non-Muslims. You mentioned a few restrictions on non-Muslims (which I'll assume are true), though there are similar ones on Muslims (ability to veil, wear headscarf, religion in government, etc).

Nominal unbelief isn't equivocal to conversion to another religion.

Not sure what you are saying here. International organizations anonymously interviewed Muslims in Turkey, and only 1-2% said they didn't believe in God, or identified as Atheist. The same was done in various Muslim countries.

A Muslim who has stopped believing in God is not going to be as forthcoming or vocal about his beliefs.

In public forums, sure. In anonymous interviews with reputable polling organizations, unlikely.

Actual conversion, either to Atheism or another religion, is often met with death.

This is simply not true. Does it occur? Sure. Does it occur "often"? Not even remotely.

Heck, some Muslims in the US are afraid of moving away from Islam, out of fear of their family.

Sure, but there's no evidence that they would be any more likely to lie on an anonymous study than anyone else.

There are a host of factors that play into why Muslims might convert away from Islam at lower rates than other religions, but I think a large part of it has to do with...ostracism alienation.

This is correct, though its something that will never change. Islam (nor any religion/group I know of) will never embrace somebody who gives the middle-finger to their culture/faith/people. Violence/legal prosecution is unacceptable (and will likely change), but simple disapproval/disassociation will remain (which seems reasonable).

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