I don't think cigarettes translates to the black market in the same way alcohol or other drugs do. I could list a lot of reasons and probably forget a few, but

-their demand is based in part on their easy availability, quitting cigarettes is not that difficult as a matter of physiology or brain chemistry the effects of nicotine withdrawal are fleeting and it has little other social or psychological benefit as do other drugs. But people keep smoking them because they need it now and it's right there.

-the habit itself will become even more difficult if not able to smoke not only not in public but out of public view

-growing tobacco illegally is probably a pain in the ass, add to that drying and manufacturing the cigarettes

-profit margin is low compared to other illicit substances

-people addicted to cigarettes need a lot of them, probably around a pack a day at least and again the margins are low for that volume of product

-probably most importantly much fewer people will start smoking if it is a black market product