Posted this over on the NBA Daily, and I know they lost last night even though they are favored, but let me tell you my logic here. 1st off Cousins got pulled early after he tripped and fell over his own guy and Olidapo had an unreal 13 1Q points. It's gonna happen. That's gambling.
Currently Luol Deng, Dragic, Wade, Chalmers, and Anderson are injured. Miami isn't even that deep. Let's assume they lose 40% productivity from that (And that's very generous). Fair? That's 6 points worth of injured players.
They have no injuries they haven't already adjusted too. DeMarcus is average 8 PPG 1Q and Gay is averaging 6.1 and McLemore averages 4.8 PPG 1Q. They have 3 people outperforming Miami's top 1Q scorer Luol Deng, who is out. 1Q Kings should go hard. Even if they don't is Miami deep enough to handle the situation? They're a slow paced team. They got shut out 13 points to 40 last night 1Q against the Wizards.
If an hour before the Game Deng, Wade, and Dragic are out I'm putting 3u on this. It's hard to see Miami winning this game from any angle with those 3 out 1Q. They're already bad and now you take away 11 points worth of 1Q scorers. Dayum.
So tell me this. Why is Sacramento unfavored in the 1Q? They shouldn't be. After that? Oh yea. They gonna tank like no other in all likeliness (Although I like the kings so I hope not). This is a line that favors the overall outcome, but the individual 1Q quarter outcome favors Sacramento. So I'll take Sacramento at +120.