It doesn't matter what we want. But heres what i think might happen.

1. Lots of winners Basically most everyone with a real effort makes it to the finish line within a few years of each other. Prices come down from competition and standardization. In the end the winning model will be more who executes best and finds market fit. Being first doesn't matter too much when expanding is so capital intensive. (25%)
2. One winner for a long time, and it is really pricy. In this model Waymo crosses the finish line and makes all of it's money from trucks. Basically sensors and monitoring are expensive and trucking is the only use case the works. But no one else is ready to fully expand and they take the whole market in a few years. (25%).
3. Mobile Eye wins and is way cheaper than everyone else. Mostly focuses on cars that are level 4 for all the easy driving. Highways, no traffic, good weather, no construction, but makes you drive other times (15%)
4. Replace mobile Eye with tesla, and I say (1%). Sorry their cameras don't have the dynamic range. Even if there is an AI miricle.
5. Some one else like OpenAI or deep mind uses something cutting edge that does better transfer learning and can beat all the other stacks on it's first try. (10%)
6. No winners, AVs are never really a thing outside of closed campus's and fixed routes. The problem was hard, it took too long. and other things happened that made them irrelevant, like evotl or fixed track pods, or who knows. (24)