Poll/Pobalbhreith: Dáil Éireann SF: 37% (+6) FG: 21% FF: 20% (-3) GP: 5% (-1) SD: 3% (-1) LAB: 3% (-2) S/PBP: 1% AON: 1% +/- October/DF

It's a tough choice for Leo.

I don't think his ego will allow him to bow out of Irish politics as Micheál Martin's deputy. I suspect you are entirely right and he may be holding on to get the Taoiseach's office back and manoeuvre himself into a Commissionership from there after a very short period.

It's a very fine line for him (I have to say at this point I don't see that any criminal charge will stick) and he has to time it perfectly. If he doesn't time it right, there's a huge risk that FG TDs take the decision for him.

I wonder is the lack of any tangible leadership jostling a sign that he's already given an exit date. If he's indicated privately that he will step down as FG leader and Taoiseach by the summer recess, that would explain the reticence of FG TDs to make a fuss.

Let Martin destroy FF, let Leo pick up the pieces, and then take over at the start of what ought to be a booming economy.

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