Two of my classmates got into funded PhD without Ms in fall 21 in near 40 ranking unis, they did not have any publication. Admission committee evaluate ur whole profile GPA+test scores + sop + LOR + research statement, sometimes interview etc. However, thesis experience is helpful if u have in undergrad. If u aim for top 10-20 unis well, u may need a great profile. However, publication does not give any assurance. Admission committee is not infant. They prefer quality over quantity.

People with so called big profile get bogged at application cause publication in predatory journal, copy paste papers, unnecessary multiple authorship etc. Then they go out and say admission has become tough while genuine talents get admission with fund without any so called papers experience. Deft professors know by seeing ur profile how much in genuine.