So my question is in case #3 here, wouldn't that be worth it no matter what as long as the rate is lower than my current one? Since I don't know when the rates will bottom out, instead of trying to time the bottom and refinancing once with closing costs, I can just chase the rates down by refinancing with lender credits right? Lets say I take a .25-.5% interest rate hit to get the lender credit, the chances of getting a lower rate via trying to time the bottom and paying fees is probably not much better from what I understand. This is assuming appraisal fees etc are covered as well (unlikely but makes the theoretical situation easier to understand)