I'm sorry that you feel that way, but I don't feel two years of data is as cherry picked as you think. At this age, I prefer to use shorter spans to more closely monitor declines, seeing as history is littered with guys who fall off in the 26-30 years, even elite scoring talents.
Four years of data is great, but I just don't prefer it. Even then, if Kessel is 27th or 22nd like I wrote above the chart which you ignored for whatever reason,
Usage and shot volume is important. How many offense only players get paid what Kessel does? I can think of three? Perry, Ovechkin, and Kane. Ovechkin can't produce points/60 like the other three can, but his power play and goal stats are pretty good. He's also got a higher percentage of points on ice then Kessel does.
You can't and shouldn't hand wave my points about usage and volume because we're talking about trading here. Kessel is by far the best offensive talent in Toronto. But when it comes to the rest of the league? That's a lot more iffy. Oshie isn't the best offensive talent on St. Louis. He isn't asked to be, like Kessel won't asked to be in a lot of places he gets traded.
As for the Oshie thing, he's been involved as the primary point on 58.5% of goals while he was on the ice at even strength over the last four years. Kessel is involved in 62.7. I would call that a notch below. We could argue about it for days. That's my opinion. You have a different opinion on what a notch is.
Oshie isn't asked to be the primary offensive talent in the same way Kessel is in Toronto, but here's what's imporant: We aren't talking about Toronto anymore. He won't be asked to be the same offensive talent he was in Toronto anymore. He probably isn't going to be given X amount of shots and isn't going to be given X amount of ice time the way he was in Toronto. And with that, his numbers are probably going to falter. And personally, if we're talking about worth, the guy who can play two ways is worth more than the guy who can play one when there isn't as big of a gap as you'd like to make it out to be. I would take 1.52/60 when that person can play two ways. That's 86% of Kessels 1.76/60.
Oshie isn't asked to play one way for the same reason Toews isn't asked to play one way, and I think you know why that is. Defense is incredibly important, because shot suppression is important. If I can get 86% of an "elite offensive talent" but have him going two ways and taking away shots from my opponent, in my mind that evens out. When we talk about suppressing shots, we're talking about removing chances and luck from the other teams equation, and then adding it to our own. If Oshie is a better defensive forward then Kessel (and he is), then net wise, what do you think the points difference is? Can Kessel outscore what other teams take away? Can he do that for the next six years? That's the question you have to ask when you're trading for him.
These are the things you have to look at with Kessel, in my opinion at the end of the day:
A) What will it cost? Well, Kessel costs 8 million a year till 2022, and if I recall correctly has a four million dollar roster bonus on the first of July. Oshie costs 4.5 for two more years.
B) How well do these players typically age? We can talk about whether or not Kessel is typical, but if I'm trading for him this is something I need to consider, right? And players like Kessel, that I can think of, just don't age well. How many speed and wrist heavy shooters last until they're 34, which is way past the cliff of a typical player. And yes, there have been elite players like Kessel who have fallen off the face of the earth post 30 but they didn't cost 8 million a year.
C) How well can I use him? How much can I use him? If I'm a team that gets penalties 3-4 times a game, I wouldn't take Kessel, because that's 6 or so minutes where I can't use him. If I'm Anaheim, is Kessel going to fit in with Getzlaf and Perry, or are there cheaper options?
D) Can I get more production relative to the money I'm spending? And this , I think, is why I don't feel Kessel is a good trade for a lot of people. For 8 million dollars a year, a lot of teams should lock up their young players and extend that cup window or simply build themselves to retool. If I'm Anaheim I'd save the money for my defensive core and a cheaper winger, if I'm Minnesota I don't go near another 30 year old winger, if I'm Florida I'd be really worried about that contract and the young bits I'm giving up down the line. I haven't seen a Kessel proposal that makes sense. And that's because while Kessel is a very good winger, the cost is simply too high for any team, especially with the salary cap. I can't justify 8 million dollars for that production when there are cheaper contracts out there that last a hell of a lot shorter that give me, say, 60 or 70% of Kessel offensively does but can go both ways and cost half of the price. I'm not spending 8 million dollars for a winger that can't play both ways, it's just personally not worth the money to me, because I feel that shot suppression isn't something that Kessel offers.
Kessel offers really good, if not great offensive production but is a one way player who relies on skills that typically fade over time. I can't guarantee that if I pick up Kessel I can move that contract four years down the line, and you can't do that either no matter how much you love him. But I can get a player who can go both ways, put up good offense, and isn't a liability skating backwards, for a whole lot less then what the Leafs are asking, and I'm not saddled with a contract that leaves me high and dry if or when his skills start to fade