The Resurgence of a Nuclear USA and Russia

The Russian supply of natural resources, and the economic relations it can foster on the basis of exporting those resources, is a firm foundation, not a weak one. The Soviet model was weak. This model does not meet the standards of developed capitalist economies, but it will prove to be resilient.

Russia is also one of the world's two leading nuclear weapons states and has one of the most powerful conventional armed forces, even when adjusted for the technological superiority of the US and its allies.

Russia has assumed a pivotal role in Middle Eastern diplomacy, becoming a balancing force against the US and its allies by supporting Syria and Iran. In this, its interests also align with China. In other areas, both Russia and China agree that the US should be locked out of Central Asia, and Russia supports China's efforts to foster parallel international financial institutions to challenge Western supremacy. A crucial economic arrangement is emerging between the two countries which could provide energy security to China and a means to reduce the country's carbon pollution, as well as securing the world's largest energy market for Russia. The United States is set to become an energy exporter and will compete with Russia for market share in Europe and East Asia, particularly to help the EU "diversify" away from Russia.

A NATO-Russia security competition centered on Ukraine but including other areas of Eastern Europe is now underway. This is really nothing like the Cold War, because instead of two armies facing off in Central Europe including with tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, we have a hot war in Ukraine, and it's an asymmetric war and a proxy war. So far nuclear weapons really haven't been introduced directly, but both the US and Russia maintain their strategic nuclear arsenals.

So when we add it all up: energy, nukes, the Middle East, China, Ukraine... I don't know what you want to call it, it's not like the Cold War, but I don't think this is brief or uneventful. I'm not sure you can say the Russian economy is failing, it is just in an economic crisis. A crisis is temporary. I'm no expert on the Russian economy or energy markets but I don't think you can assume energy prices are going to stay low forever. That seems like wishful thinking that Russia will collapse and go away.

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