Alright, had more time to write this, so I'll put this up here:

The GOOD NEWS for Sanders fans is that MI - seemingly impossible from the polls - was flipped with what looks like will be a 2% win (Wayne Co. still has 50 precincts left, which may narrow it a bit).

This is huge news for him, as it finally gives his campaign a win - even if small - in a big state more diverse than his previous wins. It also shows that he's doing well with white working class voters and independents, as well as making inroads with the Northern black community (although he still lost them 2:1 apparently).

The SEMI-GOOD NEWS for Sanders is that the polls were very wrong in MI. Now, as a stats guy, I caution the optimism here - MI had a disputed primary in 2008 and hasn't been reliably polled since 1992, so the pollsters have been weighing their results against very incorrect demographics it appears. As an example, if they assumed 10% of voters were 18-29, and 30% were 65+, then today's exit polling showing 18-29 voters being closer to 20% and 65+ being around the same size is a 20 point swing in polls, given that they broke in opposite directions in roughly the same proportions.

In other words, the polling was way off in MI, and a lot of credit is due for the GOTV drive the Sanders camp organized in MI, but don't automatically use that to assume all the polls in other states (esp. battleground states like FL and OH, which get polled to insane degrees) are automatically off too.

The BAD NEWS for Sanders fans is that the beatdown in Mississippi is projected to go to 32-4 for Clinton, meaning -28 from MS, while Michigan is projected at 70-60 for Sanders.

In other words, for the night, he's down 10 delegates and two states are now off the board:

So in an odd way, he won Michigan, but he missed the mark on what he needs (a roughly 54-46 victory, he falls short by 3-4%), which actually decreased his odds.

The GOOD NEWS for the Hillary camp is that Mississippi went big for Clinton, validating her campaign's copy of Obama's 2008 victory by winning big in the South and racking up delegate wins there, and narrowly losing contested states. A loss in MI is very bad for PR and optics, but a 10 delegate loss there being offset by a 28 delegate gain in MS is nice.

The SEMI-GOOD NEWS for Clinton is that it took a massive GOTV undertaking by the Sanders camp, a lot of money spent, a debate and town hall, to flip Michigan into a +2 or so win. With NC, FL, OH, MO, and IL coming up, the Sanders campaign is going to have to split their attention up to 5 states, two of which (FL and IL) have favorable demographics for Clinton.

The BAD NEWS for Clinton is that any air of inevitability is gone. The 2008 Obama strategy won Obama the victory, but it was one of the tightest and most bitterly fought contests in primary history on either party's side. She and her supporters can't simply rest on the polls anymore - states like NC, OH and PA suddenly look like places Sanders can win in.

And while a 2% victory in those states doesn't help if Clinton can blow it away in places like MD, state victories - no matter how small - bring legitimacy to insurgent/underdog campaigns.

On the bright side for the Clinton campaign, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina loom large. Demographics have been one of the best predictors of this race, and if she can win big (10+ points) in Florida and Illinois, then 2-5% losses in Ohio, Missouri (and we'll call NC a tie) won't hurt very much delegate wise while simultaneously taking out 691 combined delegates on the table. A 50 delegate gain on Tuesday for Clinton puts the race in the -250 lead range with 1139 of the ~2000 delegates needed with ~2000 delegates remaining. At that point, Sanders would have to win big in states like CA, NY, and PA to have a chance.

I'll run the math later on all this