I think the NFL decision makes sense for people who are risk-adverse. While the MLB has a higher ceiling in terms of career earnings, it takes a long time to reach that point. While a superstar NFL player usually goes less well than a superstar MLB player, I think a first-round NFL pick will get paid much better in the short-term.

Murray would get a decent MLB signing bonus (though likely less than the one he’d receive in the NFL draft), but then he’d be in the minor, and make almost nothing. Ideally, he’d succeed and get through the minors quickly.

Once he reached the majors, he’d have three years under total team control, and likely make around league minimum (which is $555,000 this year). Then, he’d have 3 years of arbitration. You can make good money in arbitration (or sign lucrative deals to avoid it), but both of those contracts tend to only be 1-year deals. Then, after 6 years in the majors (or 7, if the team manipulates his service time), he’d become a free agent and be able to make the big guaranteed money.