(Spoilers TWOW) Analysis certain lines from the new chapter

This is a pretty bold thing to say. The Reach is still declared for Tommen, who is married to their eldest daughter. That may well change soon I admit, but would they flock to fAegon or Stannis? It's a toss-up for the moment. The Crownlands, again, declared for Tommen, although I'm not sure this is support worth counting on for Tommen, fAegon or anyone else. The Stormlands are in peace and may change, but there are some men still loyal to Stannis, who will only see fAegon as yet another usurper. The forces remaining are also in very bad shape. Dorne might rally to him but, well... they've had plans for Daenerys already. And she's got dragons. I'm not sure Doran will commit all his forces to fAegon so long as Daenerys' intentions / relations aren't fully known, or if he's not convinced he is truly Aegon.

A big of a tangent there but.. well... :-P

[A good question, I guess I just included some assumptions/theories of mine without expanding on them. I'm currently writing a military analysis of each faction as TWOW begins, so it'll be better explained there, but basically I think the Reachmen will realize Tommen's reign is a sinking ship.]

The Tyrells went from Targ loyalists in the Rebellion to Renly's main allies, then Joffrey and Tommen. What's to prevent them from joining another king? Kevan was the knot keeping the Lannister-Tyrell alliance together, and people on Cersei's payroll will be the prime suspects once Kevan is found dead. Margaery is still available (no marriage consummated, despite 3 husbands) and Aegon is still single. They could save their own skin, avoid war and remain with huge influence with that simple treaty. There's Arianne, of course, so they could be late to the party for that, but it's still a better option than fighting to the bitter end for boy king Tommen Waters.

Stannis loyalists will clearly see Aegon as an usurper, but there aren't many left in the Stormlands, and Storm's End has a minimal garrison. Most of the troops are with Stannis, in the bottom of Blackwater Bay, or switched sides after that battle. Aegon already conquered most of the region, and we're told in Arianne's excerpt that he's taken Storm's End.

I don't think Dorne will side with Daenerys for now, not right after they're told of Quentyn's fate (I don't think Doran is gonna believe whatever story they tell him about an accident), and I doubt he'll help her even if he's told the true story and believes it. Dorne has resisted dragons before, after all..

As I said, he would be the heir but who would he side with? If Sansa sticks with Littlefinger and Littlefinger doesn't agree with Stannis or vice-versa, who would little Rickon choose? His sister or his saviour? I think the former, but the latter is equally possible.

Rickon? He wouldn't have much of a say, I guess, but you can't be a real Stark loyalist and accept Sansa as Queen and/or Harry as king, if you ask me. I doubt any notherner would support the idea, and I don't see why Rickon would even consider turning on the people who brought him back home.

No, neither do I but it's the best she's got for now. She may become independent but she'll have also learned from Littlefinger, and some of his intentions / goals will likely have rubbed off on her.

I agree, but Jeyne's story is simply too tragic for it not to have consequences from Sansa.

/r/asoiaf Thread Parent