One thing to keep in mind is that being regulated by a gaming commission isn't the end of the world.
Something like Magic the Gathering probably wouldn't have to make huge changes to their practices because they're pretty fair. You know you're going to get X common and X rare cards in a pack and you know you're going to roughly get the value of your money in card form - whether you're disappointed or not.
You're not buying the cards for their monetary value so that's not hugely relevant here either. As long as you get the right number of cards - you got what you paid for.
Crucially, you're never going to open a pack full of blank cards and if you want you can sell or give away the cards you don't personally care for.
It's not necessarily a given that you'd need to be 18 to buy cards if they were regulated either. Many competitions are regulated by gaming laws - you don't need to be 18 to enter them.
And Pepsi totally has to follow strict rules when running a competition of chance. There's a damn good reason you don't pay to enter and they can't lie about the prizes on offer. Whether it's 'gambling' or not is a bit irrelevant because they are still regulated.
The Ikea example is interesting because it kinda shows the problem with what EA is doing. Having random mattress colors isn't gambling - it's just really bad business practice. People are going to get pissed if they get a lime green mattress.
It's missing the crucial element which is that people would want to risk getting a shitty color mattress. They wouldn't. But with loot boxes they are getting that thrill.
And with the golf example - you've got to look at intention there. If the PGA is using a game of chance to earn stacks of money, then, maybe that is gambling.
But ultimately I imagine very little would come of this because it would be pretty simple to make loot boxes fair. All they'd need to do is ensure you got value for money in every box, that you knew the odds, and that you didn't get repeat prizes which delivered 0 value.
Heck, you could just change loot boxes into loot challenges where you need to get a killstreak of 10 in the next hour to win a random prize. Boom - it's no longer a game of chance that constitutes gambling.